Market Cap vs Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)

The two numbers

Market cap = price × circulating supply.

FDV = price × maximum (or total) supply.

If every token already circulates, the two are equal. When they differ, the difference is tokens that exist on paper or in a schedule but cannot be sold yet.

Why the gap matters

Imagine two tokens, both with a $200 million market cap:

• Token A has 90% of its supply circulating. FDV ≈ $222 million.
• Token B has 10% circulating. FDV = $2 billion.

Token B's holders own a small slice of what will eventually exist. Over the next few years, nine times more tokens will reach the market, typically via team, investor and ecosystem token unlocks. For the price simply to stay flat, demand has to absorb all of that.

Low float, high FDV launches

Many recent tokens launch with a small circulating supply and a large FDV. A small float makes the price easy to push up early, and the headline market cap looks modest. Later, unlocks arrive. This pattern has led to long declines for many tokens even when the project kept building.

How to read it

1. Divide market cap by FDV. Above 0.7, most supply is out. Below 0.3, most is still to come.
2. Find the unlock schedule in the project's documentation, and check our token unlock calendar for the next large release.
3. Ask who receives future tokens. Ecosystem rewards that go to users are different from investor allocations with a cost basis far below today's price.

The caveats

FDV assumes today's price for tokens that may not exist for years, and some supply may never be released. Treat it as a measure of dilution risk, not a valuation.